The western world was aghast that Sweden didn’t shut down it’s economy and lock down it’s population in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Sweden was subjected to withering criticism from it’s EU neighbors. Many experts predicted a complete disaster and all but accused the Swedes of committing genocide against their own citizens. But were the critics right?
First of all, it is worth noting that Sweden appears to be pretty much done with the coronavirus. While much of the western world is still struggling with lock downs and economies on life support, Sweden has by and large returned to normal. New cases and deaths in Sweden have slowed to a trickle. And since there was no lock down in the first place, there is little worry about a “second wave” in Sweden due to reopening.
The critics point to the higher death rate in Sweden compared to Norway and Finland as vindication they were right all along. And it is true that Sweden’s death rate is significantly higher than it’s Nordic neighbors. However, Sweden has a lower death rate than several other European countries such as the UK, Belgium, Spain, and Italy. Countries which enacted strict lock downs and experienced severe economic contractions. Sweden also has a lower death rate than many US States.
My home State of Michigan makes for an interesting comparison. Governor Gretchen Whitmer has used her emergency executive powers to enact very strict, broad, and aggressive lock down measures. While the economy of Michigan is in shambles and some lock down measures will likely continue on for months, many people credit her heavy-handed actions for saving lives. The populations of Michigan and Sweden are very close in size at right around 10 million people. However, the number of COVID deaths in Michigan to date is 6,592, while the number of fatalities in Sweden is only 5,787. So despite the lock down efforts, the death rate in Michigan is actually 15% higher than in Sweden.
Is this conclusive proof that the lock downs didn’t work? No, not any more than comparing Sweden to Finland proves they did. There are many other variables that affect the death rate besides lock down status. Population density, age demographics, comorbidity rates, and many other factors all come into play. But the comparison certainly raises some interesting questions. Questions the proponents of giving sweeping power to healthcare technocrats probably aren’t going to be too eager to entertain.
Almost all of the EU countries decided a very strong and intrusive government intervention was the best way to deal with the pandemic. And many of the US States followed suit. They claimed the economic devastation, millions of lives put on hold, loss of civil liberties, and general misery of the lock downs was worth the lives that could be saved. In hindsight, the data suggest that it might have been one of the worst public policy decisions of all time.